Price Prediction for Fresh Agricultural Products Based on a Boosting Ensemble Algorithm

doi:10.3390/math13010071

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	Price Prediction for Fresh Agricultural Products Based on a Boosting Ensemble Algorithm
	Zhang, Nana 1; An, Qi 2; Zhang, Shuai 3; Ma, Huanhuan 4
	2025-01
发表期刊	MATHEMATICS
卷号	13 期号:1
摘要	The time series of agricultural prices exhibit brevity and considerable volatility. Considering that traditional time series models and machine learning models are facing challenges in making predictions with high accuracy and robustness, this paper proposes a Light gradient boosting machine model based on the boosting ensemble learning algorithm to predict prices for three representative types of fresh agricultural products (bananas, beef, crucian carp). The prediction performance of the Light gradient boosting machine model is evaluated by comparing it against multiple benchmark models (ARIMA, decision tree, random forest, support vector machine, XGBoost, and artificial neural network) in terms of accuracy, generalizability, and robustness on different datasets and under different time windows. Among these models, the Light gradient boosting machine model is shown to have the highest prediction accuracy and the most stable performance across three different datasets under both long-term and short-term time windows. As the time window length increases, the Light gradient boosting machine model becomes more advantageous for effectively reducing error fluctuation, demonstrating better robustness. Consequently, the model proposed in this paper holds significant potential for forecasting fresh agricultural product prices, thereby facilitating the advancement of precision and sustainable farming practices.
关键词	boosting ensemble learning algorithm light gradient boosting machine fresh agricultural products price predictions
其他关键词	MACHINE
DOI	10.3390/math13010071
收录类别	SCIE
语种	英语
资助项目	National Natural Science Foundation of China; [72202093]
WOS研究方向	Mathematics
WOS类目	Mathematics
WOS记录号	WOS:001393641000001
出版者	MDPI
原始文献类型	Article
EISSN	2227-7390
引用统计	被引频次[WOS]：0 [WOS记录] [WOS相关记录]
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.library.ouchn.edu.cn/handle/39V7QQFX/174306
专题	国家开放大学
通讯作者	Ma, Huanhuan
作者单位	1.Zhejiang Univ Water Resources & Elect Power, Coll Econ & Management, Hangzhou 310018, Peoples R China; 2.Open Univ China, Sch Engn, Beijing 100039, Peoples R China; 3.Capital Univ Econ & Business, Coll Business Adm, Beijing 100070, Peoples R China; 4.Nanjing Univ Aeronaut & Astronaut, Coll Econ & Management, Nanjing 211106, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhang, Nana,An, Qi,Zhang, Shuai,et al. Price Prediction for Fresh Agricultural Products Based on a Boosting Ensemble Algorithm[J]. MATHEMATICS,2025,13(1).
APA	Zhang, Nana,An, Qi,Zhang, Shuai,&Ma, Huanhuan.(2025).Price Prediction for Fresh Agricultural Products Based on a Boosting Ensemble Algorithm.MATHEMATICS,13(1).
MLA	Zhang, Nana,et al."Price Prediction for Fresh Agricultural Products Based on a Boosting Ensemble Algorithm".MATHEMATICS 13.1(2025).